Chinese New Year (CNY, or the Spring Festival) is the biggest event of the year for anyone shipping goods from China. For 2–3 weeks, the world's largest factory grinds to a halt: production lines stop, cargo does not ship, and before and after the holiday logistics runs overloaded. Importers who fail to account for this in their planning end up in February with empty warehouses and lost sales. This guide covers exactly what happens to factories and carriers, how prices climb month by month, and provides a ready-made action calendar from September through March.
What happens to factories and logistics
The holiday date is movable — by the lunar calendar it falls in late January or early to mid-February. But the effect on the supply chain stretches across a good five months, and it plays out the same way every year.
December — the rush. Importers all over the world scramble to receive goods "before the holidays". Factories are buried in orders and start turning away new clients or pushing production times from 7 to 20+ days. Carriers raise rates, and slots on air and rail get booked 1–2 weeks out.
First half of January — the last shipments. Factories finish current orders and largely stop taking new ones. Migrant workers (tens of millions of people) start heading home a week or two before the official holidays. The quality of the last pre-holiday batches is traditionally the riskiest: orders get "pushed through" in a hurry.
Mid-January to early February: full stop. The official holiday is one week, but in practice factories stand idle for 2–3 weeks. Production lines do not run, most suppliers on 1688 do not respond, and cargo that failed to leave in time sits waiting at warehouses.
February — March: a slow ramp-up. Not all workers return, and not all at once — some change jobs every year. Factories reach full capacity 2–4 weeks after the holidays. A month's backlog of orders creates a queue: production that took a week in October can take three in February.
How prices and lead times grow
The seasonal effect is measurable: from October through January, delivery times grow by 3–5 days and rates by 10–20%. Here is what a typical year looks like through an importer's eyes.
| Month | Shipping rates | Lead times | Main risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | +5–10% over summer | +2–3 days | Queues begin, still manageable |
| November | +10–15% | +3–5 days | Booking peak, air slots run out |
| December | +15–20% | +3–5 days | Factories push production back, haste hurts quality |
| January (before CNY) | +15–20% | Shipping deadlines | Cargo may not make it out before the shutdown |
| Late January — February | No shipments | 2–3 week pause | Complete shutdown of factories and warehouses |
| February (after the holidays) | Gradual decline | Production queues | Some workers have not returned, quality fluctuates |
| March | Back to normal | Normal +0–3 days | Working through the accumulated backlog |
To grasp the scale: a 300 kg batch by road at $3.4/kg costs $1,020 in September, but in December with a 20% surcharge it is already $1,224. Add longer lead times, plus the risk of the cargo getting stuck for a month. Current transit times for all delivery methods are in the transit time reference.
The importer's calendar: what to do each month
- September. Calculate your product needs for January–March: take average sales and build in a stock buffer 1.5–2 times larger than usual. Confirm November–December production plans with your suppliers.
- October. Place your main orders for "the holidays + after the holidays". This is the last month of relatively calm production prices. Batches traveling by sea (35–50 days) must depart in October or early November to arrive before February.
- November. Deadline for made-to-order goods: anything ordered later risks not leaving before CNY. Book rail (20–30 days) and road (15–22 days) slots in advance. Compare the cost of your options in the shipping calculator.
- December. Buy only ready stock that is in hand; do not place new production orders. Make sure paid batches are actually shipped to the consolidation warehouse — December is when orders "lost" by the supplier happen most often.
- First half of January. The last chance to ship: check your cargo operator's warehouse intake deadlines. Goods arriving at a AgilFreight warehouse in Guangzhou, Yiwu, or Shenzhen are stored free for 30 days — you can receive cargo before the holidays and ship it with the first wave afterward.
- Late January — early February. Pause. Do not plan any operations with China. Time to focus on sales, analytics, and preparing your spring range.
- February (after the holidays). Get back in touch with suppliers, but do not expect speed for the first 2 weeks. Check whether the same managers are still there: staff often change after CNY, and agreements "get lost".
- March. Place spring orders and reconcile prices — after the holidays, suppliers often "refresh" their price lists 3–7% upward. Time for an audit: the season has shown which suppliers are reliable.
Strategies: stock up or wait it out
Importers have two working strategies for getting through CNY, and the choice depends on the product's economics.
The "stock up" strategy — bring in 2–3 months' worth of sales before the holidays. Pros: your shelf never goes empty, and competitors with zero stock hand you February–March sales (a genuine window when demand exists but goods on the market are scarce). Cons: frozen cash and storage costs. Suited to fast-moving SKUs with stable demand and to marketplace sellers, where a listing dropping out of sale costs search positions.
The "wait it out" strategy — skip the pre-holiday shipping race, calmly order production in February, and receive goods in March–April at normal rates. Pros: no 15–20% December surcharges, no defect risk from the pre-holiday rush. Cons: 1.5–2 months without restocking. Suited to new niches, products with unpredictable demand, and spring–summer ranges.
The compromise experienced importers use: critical items follow the "stock up" strategy (shipped as consolidated cargo in November), while range expansion follows "wait it out".
- Mandatory for both strategies: cargo insurance (from 1% of value) — damage and delay risks peak in these months.
- Mandatory: a buffer of at least +7–10 days over estimated lead times from November through March.
- Mandatory: fix agreements with your supplier in writing before the holidays — verbal promises do not survive "after CNY".
After the holidays: quality checks matter more than ever
February–March is statistically the worst period for product quality. The reasons are prosaic: new workers who have just joined the factory after the holidays, haste in clearing the order backlog, and the supplier's temptation to ship stale pre-holiday leftovers as fresh production.
That is why reinforced rules apply to post-holiday batches: a photo report from production before shipment, expanded sampling at the consolidation warehouse (unpack 10–20% of boxes, not 2–3), and checking the batch against the sample approved before the holidays. If you are in your first year with a supplier, reread the guide how to verify a supplier: after CNY the platforms see a wave of "new" stores, many of which are re-registered problem sellers.
Advice from AgilFreight's logistics team: treat Chinese New Year not as force majeure but as a season that arrives on schedule every year. An importer who knows their plan through March by September gets through CNY without losses — and in February earns off those who "didn't make it". The most expensive phrase in this business is "we'll order after the holidays, there's still time".
Chinese New Year punishes improvisation and rewards planning. Mark two dates in your calendar — the October deadline for sea shipments and the November one for production orders — and the seasonal storm turns into an ordinary working cycle.